PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
- Overview
- Assessment methods
- Learning objectives
- Contents
- Full programme
- Teaching methods
- Contacts/Info
An essential prerequisite for the course is the topics covered in the Mathematical Analysis 1 and 2.
In particular, results and theorems on convergence of series and differential and integral calculus for functions of one or more variables will be used.
There is only a final exam that verify the learning of knowledge through a written test and an oral test.
The general objective of the course is to provide students with a formal introduction to probability theory, which underlies disciplines such as statistics and the study of stochastic processes. The second educational objective is more applied and refers to the understanding of the context in which probabilistic concepts and random variables are required to be introduced, and based on this understanding, students are required to know how to use the most appropriate probabilistic tool and the best random variable to describe the context and phenomenon of interest.
Specifically, the course aims to:
1) provide an understanding of how random phenomena can be modeled from a mathematical point of view through the concepts of probability space and random variable;
2) define the main characteristics of random variables such as law, discrete and continuous density function, moments;
3) introduce the main probability distributions both discrete and continuous;
4) introduce the most important results on convergence of random variables, such as the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem, and make students understand their importance in solving theoretical and applied problems.
Upon completion of the course, students are expected to:
1) to be able to formalize probability calculus problems in both theoretical and applied contexts;
2) have acquired the methodologies necessary to compute probabilities, expected values, variance, expected values of functions of random variables and moment generating functions;
3) know the remarkable cases of discrete and continuous random variables and know in what contexts to apply them;
4) are able to apply results on convergence of random variables to the solution of theoretical and practical problems.
- Probability spaces. Combinatorial calculus. Conditional probability.
- Discrete random variables and Discrete random vectors.
- Continuous random variables and absolutely continuous random vectors.
- Notable inequalities.
- Weak/strong law of large numbers. Central limit theorem.
(See extended program for details).
- Probability spaces: definitions of sigma algebra and probability measure. Basic properties of probability measure: monotony and continuity.
-Discrete probabilistic models. Combinatorial calculus. Counting problems.
-Total probability theorem. Definition of conditional probability. Bayes' formula. Independent events. Independent sigma algebras.
- Definition of a random variable. Law of a random variable. Distribution function. Properties of the distribution function. Definition of independent random variables.
- Discrete random variables. Discrete density. Notable distributions of discrete random variables (uniform, Bernoulli, binomial, Poisson, geometric).
- Absolutely continuous random variables. Borel sigma algebra. Density with respect to Lebesgue measure. Distribution function.
Notable classes of continuous random variables (uniform, exponential, normal).
-Average, variance and moments of a random variable either discrete or absolutely continuous. Properties of mean and variance.
-Random vectors. Joint and marginal laws. Distribution function.
-Discrete and absolutely continuous random vectors.
Mean, Covariance and mixed moments. Incorrelation and independence. Sums of random variables. Sum of independent Bernoulli's. Sum of independent binomials. Sums of independent Poisson sums. Sums of Gaussians.
-Definition of Gaussian random vectors.
Covariance matrix. Relation to affine transformations. Incorrelation if and only if independence.
- Notable inequalities: Markov's, Chebyschev's, Jensen's, Cauchy-Schwarz.
-Convergence in distribution, in probability and almost surelly. Implications and counterexamples.
- Limit theorems. Strong/weak law of large numbers. Central limit theorem.
Frontal lectures: 64 hours
In lectures, theoretical concepts are developed and the techniques necessary for applying theory to solving exercises and problems, including practical ones, are described. In addition, exercises, problems and past exam topics are solved.
The course program may be changed or expanded during the year.